Murray (29-4, Fourth District Champions) v. Calloway County (21-10, Fourth District Runner-Up)

How they got here...Murray defeated Graves County 50-33, Hickman County 66-42; Calloway County defeated Ballard Memorial 50-38, Paducah Tilghman 56-42

Head to Head...January 8 @Murray...Murray defeated Calloway County 52-48   February 11 @Calloway County...Calloway County defeated Murray 45-41  February 25 @Calloway County...Murray defeated Calloway County 61-54

Probable Lineups

Murray

F-Shelby Crouch...10.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 76%FT
G-Emily Benson...3.6 ppg, 30 3FG made
G-Sarah Crouch...3.6 ppg, 70% FT
G-Haley Armstrong...15.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 44 3FG made, 79% FT
G-Janssen Starks...15.1 ppg, 5.7 apg, 57 3FG made, 85% FT

C-Sian House...8.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 55% FG
G-Amanda Winchester...2.7 ppg
G-Lauren Dieleman...1.6 ppg, 9 3FG made

Calloway County

F-Averee Fields...24.6 ppg, 13.5 rpg, 58% FG
F-Morgan Smotherman...3.8 ppg, 14 3FG made
G-Shauna Wicker...2.0 ppg, 1.3 rpg
G-Karlee Wilson...7.0 ppg, 37 3FG made
G-Taylor Futrell...9.6 ppg, 3.1 apg

G-Abby Futrell  4.7 ppg
G-Lauren Benson 1.5 ppg
F-Cheyenne Maddox 1.5 rpg

Fast Start...or False Start?...How will the two teams start?  Averee Fields is the only player from either team to play in a regional final, and even though this is the fourth meeting between the two clubs, you would expect some serious nerves given the gravity of playing for a trip to the Sweet Sixteen...and the fact that this is the first time EVER for the two teams to meet in a regional title game (though that might matter more to us old folks).  Each of the teams first three meetings have developed a certain rhythm that favored one side early, and somewhat shockingly, the team that raced out to an early lead lost the game.  Calloway motored out to a Fields-fueled 12-1 lead in the January 8 meeting, holding the Lady Tigers to zero field goals for nearly a quarter and a half.  Murray would rally to win 52-48.  In the February 11 meeting, it was all Murray early, holding an 8-2 advantage and really slowing the Lady Laker offense.  But Murray played a turnover-plagued second quarter, let Calloway back in the game, and the Lady Lakers closed them out 45-41.  And in the district tournament final on February 25, it was all Karlee Wilson early, as her four first half threes helped Calloway County bombard Murray for much of the first half.  The Lady Tigers hung around, though, and eventually rallied from eleven down in the third to win the game by a seven-point margin, 61-54.  Wait...did we just decide the start doesn't matter?  All evidence to the contrary, here in round four of this Crosstown Classic, it should.  These teams don't have to dance around feeling each other out...although you can expect new strategic wrinkles from both coaches...and the group that goes to work early could have a significant advantage all night.

Superwoman...or Bat-Girl and Robin?...Do to you like your super heroes as a solo act or as a dynamic duo?  That's the question here, as the brilliant Fields greets Murray's gifted backcourt of Janssen Starks and Haley Armstrong.  Fields' numbers on the season...24 points, 13 rebounds per game...and her countless other contributions on both ends of the floor make her the region's best player.  Starks' combination of scoring (15.1 ppg), passing (5.7 apg), and floor leadership, plus Armstrong's scoring (15.8 ppg), passing (3 apg), and rebounding (5.7 rpg) make the tandem the region's best backcourt.  All three will need to be special to give their respective teams a chance to cut down the nets.

No Foul, No Harm...In their two wins over Calloway County, Murray's Lady Tigers made 47 free throws (26 of their 52 points on January 8, 21 of their 61 points on February 25).  In a 45-41 loss to the Lady Lakers, Murray made only ten foul shots (in 12 attempts).  We have talked about how difficult it is to score against the Lady Lakers...we'll discuss further below...and that difficulty is rooted in an inability to shoot a high percentage from the field against the Calloway County defense.  Getting to the foul line becomes paramount, especially for a Murray High squad that is among the best free throw shooting teams in the state.  The Lady Lakers must avoid sending Murray to the foul line tonight, all while hoping to get to the line themselves and to be effective once they get there.  The team with the advantage at the charity stripe is likely to be the team heading to Bowling Green.

How Do You D?...Both teams are very good defensively, with Calloway County quite obviously dominant on that end of the floor, and with Murray equally solid in a vastly underrated way.  The Lady Lakers can present problems in so many ways, not the least of which is simply allowing their guards to get into opponents with Fields waiting around the rim should anyone turn the corner and enter the lane.  They can match up very well out of multiple zone looks, most notably a 3-2 that allows them to get to perimeter shooters, and once again features Fields' length and mobility waiting on the baseline.  They can deploy the versatile Fields to take away an opponent's best offensive player, or they can use her as part of the triangle that guards the lane as they chase two of the opponent's best offensive players.  I would expect Calloway County to utilize any and all of those options, with perhaps an emphasis on the latter two.  It seems unlikely Scott Sivills would be comfortable seeing Janssen Starks going for 30 again in this matchup.  Murray will hope to find a way to stop Calloway County's transition game (more on that in a bit), and in the half-court you can be sure that Fields will see a constant escort, most likely to be Shelby Crouch.  Murray will want to find Wilson so that she doesn't explode again, while respecting the shooting of Taylor and Abby Futrell and Morgan Smotherman.  The Lady Tigers defense has taken a quantum leap this year thanks to the presence of 6-3 Sian House, who has become extremely efficient as a big-time shot-blocker who can alter attempts by the dozen.  Having the eraser on the backline gives Murray's guards the freedom to create extended ball-pressure, which ultimately makes it much more difficult to get Fields the basketball.

Trash, Treasure, and the Easy Two...As good as these two teams are, very little will separate them tonight.  We have already talked about the value of the foul line, and now we hit the other areas where both Murray and Calloway can find that most rare of objects in a game like this, the easy basket. Where can you find the easy basket?  In transition, perhaps, as both clubs excel on the run.  Fields' defensive rebounding dominance to leak out a pair of runners every time a shot goes up, and when the junior forward rips down the rebound, she has a terrific instinct for knowing whether to pitch ahead or push the ball with her own dribble.  Whatever she decides, Fields almost always makes the right decision and provides Calloway County with an easy transition basket.  Calloway must maximize those, and Murray must find a way to stop it.  Starks is just as lethal pushing pace for the Lady Tigers, and she delivers perfect passes on teammates filling the lanes for layups and threes or she calls her own number and knocks down a shot on the move.  You can be sure the Lady Lakers will work diligently to keep those off the board.  Both teams will be looking to create live ball turnovers, hoping that defense can lead to easy offense.  And finally, never understimate the value of garbage in a game like this.  Because it just might be a scrappy garbage basket, battling on the offensive glass that turns trash to treasure...fitting one of these teams for a glass slipper and a Cinderella-esque storybook ending.

Best Supporting Actress...It's almost Oscar time, and the best supporting actresses could take a bow one night early.  For all of the star-power, and it is considerable, any number of unsung performers could mean the difference between an agonizing defeat and the sheer ecstasy of a win.  For Calloway County, anybody not named Fields could inhabit the role.  A Wilson three.  A huge defensive play or bucket from a Futrell.  A Morgan Smotherman rebound or trifecta.  A Lauren Benson steal.  A Shauna Wicker offensive rebound basket.  It could be Emily Benson taking a charge for Murray.  Sarah Crouch diving for a loose ball.  A Sian House block.  An Amanda Winchester steal.  A Lauren Dieleman three.  Shelby Crouch exhausting herself trying to contain Fields.  Heart and courage wins championships.  All these ladies have plenty.  At least one will shine bright on the grand stage tonight.

Murray wins...

• If the Lady Tigers liimit Calloway County to 12 points or fewer in transition offense.
• If the Lady Tigers hold Fields to 25 points or fewer AND do not allow Calloway a second double figure scorer
• If the Lady Tigers score 12 points or more in transition
• If the Lady Tigers make 18 free throws or more

Calloway County wins...

• If Averee Fields scores 25 points or more and the Lady Lakers place at least one more player in double figures
• If the Lady Lakers score 12 points or more in transition
• If the Lady Lakers allow Murray 15 made free throws or fewer
• If the Lady Lakers hold Murray below 40% FG shooting