Murray (28-4, Fourth District Champions) v. Hickman County (13-13, First District Champions)

How they got here...Murray defeated Graves County 50-33, Hickman County knocked off Heath 65-54

Head to Head...Murray and Hickman County did not meet during the regular season.

Paige-ing Cinderella...If Hickman County is to upset Murray, the Lady Falcons will need another huge performance from Paige Barclay.  The school's all-time leading scorer did it all on Monday night, scoring 32 points, grabbing 14 rebounds, and handing out five assists.  Barclay's skill set and athletic ability are very unique, and she had it all on display against Heath.  Barclay and Tilghman's Chelsey Shumpert are probably the only two players in the First Region capable of going from change of direction dribble to raise-up jumper, and her 5-9 frame and high release make that jumper almost impossible to stop.  Barclay also showed range out to 22 feet on Monday night, and she was typically explosive going to the basket.  She has college basketball written all over her game if she chooses to pursue it, and if she authors a D-I performance on Murray State's home floor, Hickman County will have a chance to fly to the final.

Stark(s) Reality...Hickman County's preferred pace is fast, and head coach Jessica Riley suggested her club won't back off the throttle in Friday night's semifinal when asked about the pace after the Lady Falcons' win over Heath.  That's probably the right play, but wide-open is also the preferred style of Murray's outstanding guards, Janssen Starks and Haley Armstrong.  If Murray is able to handle Hickman County's pressure and run off of a dominant defensive rebounding effort, expect Starks to post an assist total in the mid-teens and the Lady Tigers to push the 75-point plateau.  Starks is as good as they come playing with her head up and her eyes scanning the floor, and she can surgically pick apart defenses in the open floor with her gorgeous passing.  Armstrong is very dangerous on the break, either spotting up for an open three or finishing at the rim, and the transition game brings out the best in athletic forward Shelby Crouch.

Three-peating Success...The three-point field goal has been at the root of many upsets since its placement in high school basketball, and it will be again if Hickman County moves on to the regional final.  Almost all of the Lady Falcons will put the three-ball in the air, but the four most gifted practicioners of the long-range shot are Barclay, Korrina Savage, Brianna Terrell, and Sam McClain.  McClain is most often found lurking in the corners, and Terrell typically gets her attempts up from the corners or either wing.  Most of Savage's threes come from just of the key area on either high wing, the same location that most of Barclay's attempts launch from.  Chasing the Lady Falcons in transition is a unique situation, because defenders can't simply report back to the paint to defend the rim.  Hickman County's long-range arsenal is running to spots on the arc, and Murray will have to find them at their perimeter posts or pay the consequences of leaving a three-point shooter with a wide-open look.  If the threes fall in bunches, the favorite might too.

Diamond in the Rough, Crown Jewel in the Paint...Most area basketball fans have become aware of Sian House's storybook journey from England to the Bluegrass, but it is really difficult to grasp how quickly the 6-3 center has gone from someone unfamiliar with the game of basketball to being one of the most important figures in the First Region postseason.  Less than two years into her immersion into the game, House has become a player capable of scoring in double figures on a nightly basis, capable of rebounding in double figures, and guaranteed to have a huge impact on the proceedings as a defender.  She has great hands, good feet, and as her conditioning has improved, House has shown a remarkable capacity for movement both defensively and in transition for a player her size.  She is very intelligent and very coachable, and her development has been one of the keys to Murray's 28-win season.  Her imposing presence will be among the biggest challenges tonight for the smaller Lady Falcons.

Murray wins...

• If the Lady Tigers turn the ball over fewer than 15 times.
• If the Lady Tigers hold Paige Barclay to fewer than 25 points
• If the Lady Tigers hold the Lady Falcons to eight threes or fewer
• If the Lady Tigers place four players in double figures

Hickman County wins...

• If the Lady Falcons turn Murray over 20 times and score at least 20 points off turnovers
• If Paige Barclay scores 25 points or more
• If the Lady Falcons make ten threes or more
• If the Lady Falcons win the rebounding battle