Paducah Tilghman (25-6, Second District Champions) v. Marshall County (22-8, Fourth District Champions)

How they got here...Paducah Tilghman defeated Fulton City 80-56, Marshall County knocked off Ballard Memorial 63-53

Head to Head...January 23 @Massac County...Paducah Tilghman defeated Marshall County 61-53 (OT), January 28 @Marshall County...Marshall County defeated Paducah Tilghman 91-76.

Cole Fusion...For all of Tilghman's spectacular athleticism, Trevonte Cole may well hold the key to the Tornado's championship hopes.  The 5-11 guard is one of the region's best three-point shooters (69 made 3FG, 41%), and he has a history of making big shots in critical situations.  And when he starts well, it puts a tremendous amount of pressure on opposing defenses that would otherwise be inclined to keep the Tornado from getting to the rim.  Cole's ability to space the offense is truly important, but perhaps even more important is his ability to provide cohesion for his team.  The junior can fairly regarded as the glue that holds Tilghman together.

Chase York City...Marshall County's 6-0 guard is one of the region's finest young scorers, something that was very much on display in the Marshals' January 28 win over Tilghman.  York scored 26 points, exploding for five three-point baskets, in the best performance of a sophomore season that has been full of outstanding efforts.  He is a clever offensive player, one that already understands how to score out of the framework of the offense.  Not just a jump shooter, York shows a terrific understanding of how to get himself to the basket and to the free throw line.  When he's going well on the offensive end, it adds another element to the Marshals' balanced attack.

Zone Busters...or Zone Busted?  Marshall County was 7-21 from three-point range in the January 23 loss to Paducah Tilghman.  Behind York's five threes, and five more from Tanner Wilson, the Marshals made 11 of 17 threes five days later in the January 28 win. Given Marshall County's efficiency against man-to-man defense, it seems likely that the Tornado will spend a majority of their possessions.  It is easy for teams to fall into a perimeter-based offense when that happens, but last Wednesday night against Ballard Memorial's zone, the Marshals were very patient, taking only five first half threes (making two).  Once the Marshals rolled out to a double-figure third quarter lead, the Bombers had to go man-to-man, and Marshall County spread out to close out the contest.  Tilghman is much better equipped to vary their defensive efforts, and it will be interesting to see how much they extend pressure against the Marshals.  How patient will the Marshals be?  We'll examine that later...but it is fair to wonder how they will attack offensively.  They are much better when they don't settle for just being a jump-shooting team, but given the abilities of York, Wilson, and Blake Clark from three-point range, we know that they are capable of another sizzling shooting performance.  And how about the Marshall defense?  Standard in-your-face man-to-man?  Or do they show some zone to make jump shooters of the Tornado?

Foul Shooting...or Free Throws?...Along with shooting 65% from behind the arc, the Marshals shot 61% overall from the field.  But that wasn't all they did well that night.  Haunted by the foul line all year long, the Marshals turned in a splendid 24-27 (89%) at the charity stripe.  Repeating that would almost certainly return Marshall County to the regional final, but the reality is that their performance at the free throw line has trended more in the direction of the 19-35 performance they authored on Wednesday night (62.4% for the season).  The Tornado, of course, can relate to those difficulties, because the free throw line is their greatest weakness.  Tilghman shoots a very impressive 51% from the field, a very respectable 33% from the three-point line, but only 50.4% from the foul line.  Keep an eye on a couple of areas related to the free throw line tonight if you want to guess the winner.  Will Marshall County send the Tornado the stripe early and often, and which team will have an advantage in free throws made on the night.  Because if Tilghman takes enough...say 30...to make enough...say 17...and that number exceeds the amount made by Marshall County, then the Tornado could win, no matter what the percentages say.

A Race...or A Chase?...Marshall County earned their win with 91 points.  Tilghman won with 61 points in overtime.  So go figure, right?  The odds and the personnel, though, say that wide-open basketball favors Paducah TIlghman.  The Marshals are very good in transition themselves, and one would expect them to run to easy opportunities, but it would seem unlikely they will look to impose a rapid pace.  Marshall County handles and passes the basketball very well, and they have shown a great ability to spread teams out and force them to chase the Marshals' offense.  Do they force Tilghman to chase them from the start?  Does Tilghman try to force the pace with trapping pressure?  Can Marshall County stop the Tornado from running?  Monitor possessions and offensive v. defensive efficiency to figure out the game's true pace, not the score.  Here's the crazy thing about the game:  In the 91-point performance, Marshall took just 46 shots from the field.  That's basically two points per field goal attempt, or in other words, offensive basketball perfection.  While scoring only 53 points in the overtime loss to the Tornado, Marshall took 54 shots.  That is where Tilghman needs the Marshals to be tonight.  A 60-70 possession pace favors the Tornado, 55 or less puts it right in Marshall County's wheelhouse.

Paducah Tilghman wins...

• If the Tornado force 15 turnovers or more
• If the Tornado makes 15 free throws or more
• If the Tornado holds Marshall County to 40% shooting or less
• If the Tornado scores 70 points or more

Marshall County wins...

• If the Marshals commit fewer than 15 turnovers
• If the Marshals make eight threes or more
• If the Marshals shoot 45% from the field
• If the game is decided at a level below 50 points